Are we Being Retailed to Death?

In the past year or two, I have noticed an explosion of retail outlets. We're loosing mom and pop retailers to national franchises. And while we're getting more choices, we're overpopulating ourselves with more retail outlets than we really need. What will happen when the economy turns down again?

Recently, for example, they have opened a four different automotive aftermarket stores in my neighborhood. So where I used to go to Trak Auto, now, within a few miles of my house, we have a Pep Boys, Parts America, an Advanced Auto Parts and another large retailer. This is in addition to the Meineke and Midas and Mr. Good Wrench, the tire stores, quick lubes, gas stations and auto dealerships.

In the past few years, I recall purchasing a set of mud flaps for my pickup and a locking gas cap. While I am sure there are others who buy a case of oil every six month, I'd rather pay the local quick-lube $21 to change mine. I mean, let's face it, how many of these stores do I -- or any of us -- really need? Yeah, I'll need tires, but I can't balance them myself. And I need new brake shoes once in a while, but I prefer not to put them on myself.

It's not that I can't. I rebuilt my first car -- a '73 Nova. I could set the points with a match book cover and did enough body work that Bondo had a sales person who called on me personally. It's just that it's not really worth my time these days. And with new, computerized engines, I cannot, and with 100,000 mile spark plugs, I don't really need to.

It's the same with home center stores. The strong economy has caused them to explode onto the scene. Within a 10 mile circle of my home, we have three Hechingers (which I do not support because of Mr. Hechinger's role in gun control), two Busy Beaver, a couple of Lowes, a few Home Depot's, at least one Builder's Square, several of lumber stores and dozens of Ace and True value hardware stores.

Now I have an old house with a big yard and a basement full of tools. So I buy paint and stain, lumber, sheet rock, caulk, faucets, electrical fixtures and many other items. I buy bags of topsoil, peat moss and other gardening supplies. But I do not need so many sources. Yes, it's good to be able to shop around for an expensive item, and It's convenient not to have to drive too far, but let's face it: This is too many stores competing for my home improvement dollars. Some of them are bound to go out of business.

The first hint of an economic downturn or slowdown, and the outpouring of consumer dollars into these and other retail outlets will slow to a trickle. People will hold off on that new car, or decide not to add new fog lights to the truck, or figure the tile in the kitchen can wait a year or two. And all these new stores will suddenly find themselves in the red. And so some of the stores -- the ones with the highest prices or the worst customer service -- will be forced to close. People will loose their jobs and once profitable companies will have huge losses. Before we know it, the slowing economy will be in a tailspin. Why? Because of all the closing stores and rising unemployment!

And that's my economic forecast: Overbuilding will eventually be our downfall.

Remember this one: if you overspend, you could be in the same position. So go easy on the credit cards and keep plenty of cash and consumables on hand for an emergency.