Diary of a Survivalist
March 29I attended a seminar on Y2K hosted by my insurance agent and a few other people. It was designed to look at Y2K from the individual's perspective instead of the macro perspective (millions of lines of code, Trillions of dollars, etc.).
While I did not learn anything new about Y2K, I did learn about the insurance industry. Most insurers are not paying for Y2K problems, although the issue will be settled in court. To put it in perspective, insurers have $250 billion in assets, but the Y2K legal battle is estimated to cost $1 trillion.
Basically, if you are at home and the power goes out due to Y2K, and your pipes freeze and damage the house, your insurance will probably pay you because you did not expect the power to go out and hand no control over it. But if you own an apartment building and the boiler goes out and the pipes freeze, and everyone's apartment suffers damage, the insurance company may pay individual apartment dwellers, but they will then try to sue the landlord, building owner, boiler manufacturer, installer, etc. They will say you should have known about Y2K and it was your responsibility to fix your boiler and its computerized control system. In any event, the insurance and legal battles after Y2K are sure to get ugly.
The seminar pointed out that homeowners insurance will only cover you for $200 lost cash on hand. That means if you keep a few thousand in your safe, without a rider, you lose it to fire, theft or whatever, it's gone and they will not replace it. So since everyone is planning to have extra cash on hand for Y2K, they are not going to be insured. And remember, burglars listen to the radio and read the newspaper and surf the net just like everyone else. They know you're stocking up and they are waiting for the big payday.
He also pointed out that jewelry is an area where people are usually under-insured. But while $1000 in cash coverage costs $50 a year, jewelry coverage costs something like $13 per $1000 coverage. (So I guess the moral of the story is to invest in diamonds). If you own multiple guns, insure them as well. Most policies only cover guns for $1000 in theft.
They also covered ways to make the coming stock market crash work for you -- generally getting out of it before the crash and then buying back in at the low point. Or, if you get caught in the crash, than sell and get a capital gains loss and carry it over five years worth of your taxes (consult your accountant, neither Captain Dave or I are accountants and this is just hearsay.)
I think the most interesting thing was the confidence level of people in the room. These are people concerned enough to come to the seminar, yet no one believed there would be long power outages or disruptions. Generally, they were in favor of keeping some food in the pantry and maybe filling a few jugs with water, but no one was preparing for the long term -- more than a week. There were quite a few elderly people there concerned about their investments, but no on had taken their level of preparation higher than buying a few extra rolls of toilet paper.
It warmed up and was sunny and dry, so I cut a lot of firewood today. Mostly, this was chain saw work, so I mixed up a new 2-1/5 gallon container of gas and oil for two stroke engines, checked the saw out, added some chain and sprocket oil and set about cutting. I built a nice, tall sawhorse just for cutting logs, and it keeps them high off the ground at the optimal sawing height.
There were also several felled trees on the property, which are ideal firewood. Most were quick work, but the big one needs to be split. I will let it dry out a few months before I split it. Makes the wedges work easier. There is one big tree that has fallen and is leaning on another tree. Tricky to cut down without injuring myself or causing damage to other trees. I think I will wait until more help is on hand before I tackle this one.
Having the wooded lot is nice because there is never a shortage of kindling. Each time the wind blows, we get a few more branches on the ground. So while I cut, the kids gathered kindling and helped carry logs to the woodpile, which is smaller than I would like. But then we have a full season before we will need more wood. I have to admit, there are some pretty impressive woodpiles in the area. There is one place where you can barely see the garage because it's hidden behind a HUGE woodpile. Another fellow must be gathering pallets for fuel. He has stacks of them next to his more traditional woodpile. In any case, I will not look out of place with multiple, long piles of wood snaking their way though my back yard.
I had been thinking for several weeks of cutting additional wood, and I think I am becoming somewhat obsessed with the idea of gathering firewood. When I drive around and I see downed trees in a wood lot, I want to jump out and cut them up rather than waiting for them to rot and return to nature. Instead, I just note the locations and remember that if Y2K causes our wood supply to dwindle, we can always cut these trees up the following year…
Today I went to the local home and garden center, one of those huge warehouses where you can buy everything from a kitchen cabinet to the lumber and materials you need to build your own. I stocked up on some basics, including several pounds of nails and screws in different sizes. We have 1", 2" and 3" wood screws and nails that range from finishing to larger-than-I-know-what-to-do-with.
I also added several drill bits to our stash. Do you ever notice that you buy a kit of 14 or 18 different size bits, and you only break or wear out the small ones? So before long, you have lots of drill bits over a quarter-inch wide, but you can't find a good 1/8th-inch for your life. And I added several Philips head bits for the battery-powered drill. I know counting on rechargeable batteries is not a good idea in a post-Y2K situation, but I'll certainly charge everything up ahead of time. Manual screwdrivers, we have plenty of.
I was pleased to see about a dozen generators of different sizes and powers on the floor -- from 1.6 to 5 to 10 kilowatt. Most of these are contractor generators, designed to run tools at a work site on a limited basis, rather than running 24x7. Still, it was nice to see that the supply has caught back up with the demand. I am still debating the generator question, and a small gasoline generator for intermittent use is looking better and better from a cost standpoint. While I could afford a diesel and tank, I am not sure that I could afford one with batteries and a couple inverters.
Since we had a few chores to do around the house -- namely building more shelves for Y2K gear -- I purchased wood as well. I'm planning to have some extra on hand for miscellaneous projects. At the rate the wood industry goes, it's probably as good a hedge against inflation as gold :) I guess this would not be a good time to go off on a rant about how the quality of lumber has gone downhill, but it amazes me at the crap they sell these days and the cost of the good stuff. No wonder antiques are so valuable -- it's the wood. And no wonder people tear down old barns to get the wood they were made out of.
Like many people who do some things around the house themselves, I have bits and pieces off extras from many projects. A few feet of copper pipe and some elbows and Ts. Part of a length of electrical cable. Lots of phone cable and some coaxial as well. Miscellaneous screws, bolts, washers, etc. Some outlets, sockets, spigots, etc. Well, I can't help thinking that if we run into problems in 2000, you never know what the value of some of these items will be for barter or even using ourselves in repairs. It makes me regret throwing out that old green, corroded copper pipe a few months ago when we upgraded the utility sink.
Captain Dave and I spoke at length today about the perception from several readers that I have veered from writing about my personal preparations to editorializing on the subject of Y2K. Having looked backward and re-read some of my posts during late February and early March, I can see how one would feel this way.
The problem that I face is that I do not do something to prepare for Y2K every day, or else what I do is pretty minor. For example, today at the grocery store, dried beans were on sale. I bought two pounds each of northern white beans, pinto beans and baby lima beans. Is that a day's worth of information? Can I make an entry out of that? Perhaps, if I go into detail on the nutritional value of beans and provide some recipes for baked beans. Or I can talk about how beans and rice or wheat compliment each other to provide the essential amino acids.
But let's face it. I'm not that interested in that subject, and that would get pretty tiring pretty quickly. When it comes down to it, a diary is a place to record ones thoughts. My thoughts may appear to be editorializing to some, but they are still mine, and a fair, representative example of what is going through my head when I read the newspaper, watch the news or talk to others about Y2K. These thoughts will continue to be represented here on an occasional basis, but I will also make an attempt to include more details about how we are preparing for Y2K.
The diary has gotten overwhelmingly positive feedback, and more than a few people have complained about its absence. I appreciate the input people have provide, the corrections and advice I receive, and I hope you continue to follow it and find it useful.
I have been meaning for some time to write about an article that appeared in late February on the front page of our local newspaper, but I only found the article again when I was going through a big pile of newspapers. (Speaking of newspapers, I suggest that everyone keep a large pile of these on hand. They are great for everything form kindling to insulation.)
Anyhow, the article was on the Senate's report and the headline says "Headaches Loom for Y2K; Special Senate panel's year-long probe re-affirms risk of computer glitches."
The article quotes the report, saying, "Make no mistake…this problem will affect all of us individually and collectively in very profound ways…it will indeed impact individual businesses and the global economy. In some cases, lives could be at stake."
Well. There it is in black and white. Warnings about Y2K and specific concerns about utilities, health care, telecommunications and transportation, with vague warnings about international problems and our foreign sources of oil being behind in remediation. Especially interesting is that they covered the senate report, but little else. Nothing on what you can do to prepare. Nothing on local survivalists. Nothing on the status of local utilities, banks and governments. It is as if Y2K has come and gone as a news story. We had a spate of news around January 1, and now nothing.
About the same time the article came out, Congressman Stephen Horn produced his report, grading the different agencies and departments of the government. Surprisingly, 11 out of 24 have jumped up to an A or A-minus in the past quarter, up from only 3 As in late 1998. I have to wonder if the government really improved that quickly or if people are cheating and lying when they fill out the forms and questionnaires. After all, this is self-reported data.
Here are a few examples:
- The Nuclear Regulatory Agency went from a C- to an A
- HUD went from a C to an A-
- The Department of Education from a C- to and A-
- The office of Personnel Management from a C to an A-
- The Department of Energy went from an F to a B
- The Department of Justice went from an F to a B
And all these leaps and bounds were made with a over a single quarter, a quarter that included Christmas, and I think we all know how hard it is to get a bureaucrat to work over the holidays!
I am taking a short break as Captain Dave is relocating and will be off line for a week or so. I'll recap if anything critical happens in my absence.
Here's what we plan to do in a Y2K worst-case scenario. By this, I mean the electric, gas, water, phone, etc. go out completely for an undetermined amount of time.
First, we have to expect the worst and go into immediate survival mode. This means I am the commander in chief at my house. In addition to taking immediate charge of home defense (unless someone more qualified is available), I am the final arbitrator and decision-maker. There are no votes and majority doesn't rule. Anyone who doesn't agree can go elsewhere, but a camp needs a leader.
Jill becomes the second in command and the quartermaster. She is in charge of what we eat or consume in what order and priority. Any other adults on hand - and we have tentative plans for there to be a few - are also given jobs, from chief medic and hygiene enforcer to entertainment director. They are in charge in their areas, subject to being overruled by me or in a defense situation. Children will be given jobs and punishment for failing to obey or do their job will be a swift spanking. While we do not want to scare them, they need to know that this is serious.
There will be certain duties that people share, like defense and housework and guard duty. And some people will sleep days and work nights and vice versa.
Chances are that we will have the guns and ammo ready and distributed before Y2K strikes. We will be on early alert because I know that if I were planning to hit someone and take their stuff, it would be early, while they are still confused and unorganized. But in any case, we go into a series of watches, with people in the house and at a remote observation point at all times. They will communicate either via a field phone or a radio.
Our immediate priority is to not draw attention to ourselves. That means if we have a generator, we use it as little as possible, running off of batteries for as long as practical. So we have to use stored water and no or low lights. We will drape windows that can be seen by the neighbors or from the road so that no lights give us away. The only TV that will be used will be in a room in the basement without windows, but with a wood stove, and it will be limited to one movie per day. My guess is that we will need to run the generator every five to seven days to charge the batteries, run the well, run the washing machine, etc. Hopefully, by the time we run it for the first time, our neighbors will have been carted off to the shelter and we will be relatively alone.
(I say if, because we have not completely decided whether or not to buy a generator. I realize that soon, it will be too late and the decision will be taken out of our hands. But the cost of a 10kW diesel generator, two large inverters, big stacks of batteries, the tank of fuel, the insulated generator shack, etc. is hard to weigh against the cost of other priorities.)
I wish there were a way to hide the smoke from our chimney, but I do not think it is worth the trouble. Most people in our neighborhood have at least a fireplace, so I am not too worried that it will make us stand out.
We will treat our neighbors with respect, but not take them in. We will feed them once, with traditional canned food - not survival supplies - but not again. We will show them strength of arms, but not give away our numbers or our defensive positions. Those that appear to be relatively self-sufficient we may barter with or form a mutual support group of some sort, but I think this will take a few weeks to determine. Certainly, if a neighbor was being attacked by a roving band and seemed to be putting up a good fight, we would provide what aid and support we could without endangering ourselves. It is better to drive them off than to fall one by one.
At some point hen it becomes clear that refugees are coming our way, we cut down trees that block the roads. I would love to do this right away, but there are enough other houses on the street that this is not practical immediately. I would prefer that those who are going to leave do so. I would also prefer that whatever emergency response can be expected takes place and then shrugs and crosses us off their list before we block their access and let them know that something us up. Another problem with cutting down the tress is that this is very difficult to do without knocking down power lines.
Initially, it will take some time to fall into habits. As the emergency lasts longer, we start teaching the kids school. We practice our marksmanship. We cut and gather more wood, even though we have plenty. We hunt and run the trap line, to preserve our stored food. We grow tomatoes and lettuce and cucumbers inside, to the extent that we are able. As spring grows closer, we start plants indoors and expand the garden outdoors. If the farmer nearby has not planted winter wheat, we plant corn and wheat in the outskirts of his field. If he has, and I may encourage him to do so, we help him harvest it.
In short, our life will go on, but it will be dramatically different than the life we have now. There will be some bumps and some sadness, but I expect some good times and some happiness as well. If life returns to "normal" it will be interesting to see which we prefer.
A Note to our Readers From Captain Dave
We are in the middle of moving both our home and office to a more remote, rural location. Combined with a influx of orders and a busy travel schedule, this has lead to a delay in posting the Diary.
I apologize to our readers, quite a few of whom have written to inquire what's happened with the diary, and I ask that you bear with me. Jack continues to write his entries and I will try to edit and post them a bit more quickly. I expect that March will continue to be a very busy month, but hope to be back on track by Easter.
Thanks!
Captain Dave
I have read recently, and heard on Captain Dave's Survival Talk forum, that organizations like the Red Cross and FEMA are telling people to prepare for three to five days, NOT because they think this is how long a problem will last, but because this is how long it will take them to respond. In other words, if you can stay warm, fed and alive for three to five days, some governmental body will come and rescue you or at least tell you where the nearest shelter is.
I would think this would be a revelation to people. I can understand why people are not unduly alarmed if they think the problem would be resolved in three to five days - that's only an inconvenience. I would hope they would be more alarmed if they understood that three to five days is just the beginning of what could be a longer problem.
OK, so let's talk about shelters for a minute.
In a flood, earthquake, hurricane, ice storm or similar emergency, shelters are usually school gymnasiums, National Guard armories and other large public structure. Inside you have rows of cots and each family gets 100 or 150 square feet of space - if they are lucky. There are sometimes organized activities for the kids and the kitchen serves hot meals. You catch up with your neighbors and exchange horror stories. You comfort each other and realize you are not alone.
So we see that the idea a shelter is to keep you safe and fed until you can go back home or, if your house has been destroyed or damaged so much that it is condemned, go to a relative's house, find a hotel or get relocated to a more permanent shelter by the Red Cross. They also provide a convenient centralized location for the Red Cross, FEMA and other organizations to meet with the disaster victims, provide emergency loans, file claims, etc.
Usually, these disasters are very localized. A city or a few miles of coast is hit. The shelter has the resources of the rest of the country to draw on. Aid and supplies pour in from near and far. If it was really a terrible disaster, the President comes and feels your pain. If it wasn't quite this magnitude, he sends the VP or head of FEMA.
But let's look at the shelter under the Y2K lens. First of all, the disaster doesn't strike and go away. It lingers. It might be weeks or months. And the fun and games of a shelter gets pretty old, pretty fast as the relief of being safe gives way to the realization that you won't be going home soon. Your few changes of clothes are dirty, and there aren't enough showers to go around. And pretty soon the food becomes less appetizing. People go from friendly to bitchy and your kids are bored all the time. Fights break out and the police, who were originally friendly and helpful, start acting more like prison guards than the heroes you thought hey were a week before.
At home, on the other hand, you have all your clothes, bedding, pots, pans, and everything else in your house. If you've prepared, you have food, a source of water, a way to warm your house, medicines and even a way to defend yourself. You are in much better shape than everyone in a shelter is.
But my opinion is that even if you haven't prepared, you are probably better off at home. This assumes that you don't live near a riot and are not going to fall victim to looters. Here's what I suggest the "unprepared" do if they wake up on January 1 and there are no services.
First, take a complete inventory of your food, batteries, candles and other resources. Determine how long you can last without outside assistance.
Second, determine what, if any, services and utilities are working. Do you have water, but no gas and electricity? Do you have gas but no electric or phone?
Third, move all your family into a single room, preferably the warmest in the house. If you have a fireplace, so much the better. Place extra blankets and comforters over the windows to keep the cold out - eve if you have to staple or nail them into place.
Fourth, find something to do to keep busy and take your mind of your troubles. Embark on a Monopoly marathon. Read that book you've been meaning to get to, etc.
Fifth, keep a low profile. Let any neighbors you are close with know that you are safe, but may need help in a week or 10 days, or whatever time frame.
Sixth, when the 'authorities" come by and ask to evacuate you to a shelter, politely decline, but ask them for a case of MREs, a few gallons of water or whatever you need.
If the time comes when you can't hold out any longer, then ask for assistance. But I think you may be surprised at how many weeks even the average unprepared family can last for.
I don't know about you, but there are certain days this year where I will refuse to travel and will be sure I am carrying a gun and plenty of ammo. August 21 is one.
A number of people have expressed concern about several states, including New York, rolling over into their fiscal year on April 1. Personally, I don't think this will be much of a problem. It might cause some snafus, but I think they will not be insurmountable. Will April 1 be a harbinger of things to come? If it is bad, then I would be seriously worried for Y2K. But if it is not bad, or passes unnoticed, I would not breathe a huge sigh of relief.
Why do I feel this way? Because the fiscal year is largely a bookkeeping fiction. Welfare checks issued by New York on April 1 will still say 1999 - not 2000. And the dates in databases will still say 1999. The fiscal year does not affect the stock market, banks or money transfers. It does not create a problem for power generating and distribution equipment. The elevator and airplane isn't on a fiscal year. Embedded chips are not on a fiscal year.
I think the fiscal year changeover will be educational, if we use it as a source of data. It can be a trial run telling us many things. For example: How many "fixed" programs failed? How many programs that were not fixed failed? How long did it take to fix the problem, once a faulty date was identified? How much data was lost? How many systems came screeching to a halt vs. how many continued to function, but provided bad data? These are all questions that would be useful to learn the answers to.
But I won't let it affect my personal preparedness. I'm still moving ahead.
Panic. Now that there are just over 300 days until Y2K, this is an appropriate time to talk more about panic. I think it's inevitable. I also think that the government is doing everything it can to reduce panic, or at least delay it until the last minute by downplaying the problems we may face in Y2K. And I think this is doing us a disservice because it prevents people from preparing.
How can a governor be concerned enough to call up their National Guard for a Y2K test run, stage emergency planning drills and yet not be concerned enough to tell people to prepare?
And it is not only the government who wants to forestall panic. I was invited by a friend who sells financial instruments to talk to a large group of people about Y2K. "I want you to tell them what you think will happen, and I want you to be honest," he told me. "But don't panic them." Why not panic them? Because he doesn't want them to buy gold or cash out, he'd rather they stick with his investments.
Well, giving people a glimpse at the awful potential - and I admit that it is only the potential - of Y2K without causing a bit of panic or at least a good healthy does of fear is tough to do. How can I tell them that there is a good chance we will experience blackouts, rioting in the streets, bank runs, market crashes, food shortages and there's a good chance people will die and not panic them? Tell a wealthy suburbanite driving an Audi that they should install a wood stove and buy a gun and they are likely to laugh at you and discount your advice because you are obviously a nut. Make them face what life would be like without all the conveniences they are used to, and they may laugh it off, but inside, they will be worried. And if you capture their attention and get through their shield of "it can't happen to me," they'll probably go into panic mode.
People basically follow others. That's why the most important words in leadership are "follow me." But enough people have to follow so that the undecided jump on board before the train leaves the station. And right now, the number of people who are preparing has not yet reached critical mass. When will we reach this critical mass? I don't know -- it could be April 5, it could be January 5. But here are some signposts we should look out for. Because when we hit too many of these points, even the dense will have to sit up and take notice:
If you start to recognize some of these signs, look out! Kick your preparations into high gear before it is too late.
- Surging food, generator and other sales (already happening).
- Shortages of "normal" foods, like rice, canned goods and powdered milk.
- Frequent news stories that position people who are preparing not as "crazed survivalists" or whackos, but as people who may have a darn good idea.
- More government officials jumping on the 'This is serious" bandwagon and urging people to prepare. Right now, we just have a few senators and congressmen saying how serious this is. What happens when more come out with doom and gloom forecasts?
- Local and state level officials publicizing emergency plans and calling for civilians to make their own personal plans. This includes more publicity of plans for police, National Guard and military activity in early January.
- Public calls for people to prepare for "several weeks or a month" rather than just a few days or a week.
- Companies and government agencies announcing that they have not met their repair deadlines (or not announcing that they have, a more likely scenario).
- The first bank run.
- A 1000 point drop in the Dow in a single week.
- Y2K problems in states and countries that reach their fiscal 2000 on April 1 or July 1.
- Serious problems resulting from the mid-August rollover of the GPS system.
- More airlines canceling flights on December 31/January 1.