Diary of a Survivalist
Well, we are just about half way to Y2K. Six months to go, and from what I can see and read, preparedness has sunk to a new low. I have to wonder when the American public is going to wake up -- or even if they will.
On the positive side, there are no signs that the stock market will suffer from Y2K. I still have lots of my retirement money in conservative investments, so that I can buy when it hits a low. Will we see a crash in September/October? I still think so.
Here is my new Y2K scenario -- what I am planning for. (Some company names are used, but do not reflect any knowledge of a company's or industry's actual Y2K compliance -- this is speculative fiction.)
Stock markets tumbles 1500 points over a single week in October. People start to worry about Y2K a bit more and although many people call it a correction, the market doesn't bounce back this year like it did last year. It continues to drop in fits and starts over the next few weeks
People withdraw lots of cash form the bank. There are not runs, yet, but banks have to call upon the Federal Reserve to get more cash than normally.
By early November, things are tense. Sporting good stores are sold out of common camping items and there are no freeze dried meals on the shelves. Gun sales have increased noticeably and common ammo is in short supply. Coleman stoves and lanterns are big sellers. In the grocery stores, observant people notice more empty spaces on the canned goods isles and in the warehouse clubs, there are no longer pallets full of canned foods stacked high into the air. While panic does not start to kick in yet, a noticeable amount of people going through the checkout line are buying lots of staple products.
Also in November, news stories start leaking about problems with Y2K. Suddenly, the rosy picture painted by the government and big business looks like it was a whitewash.
By mid-November, Y2K is on everyone's minds. People are visibly worried about it. Supply and demand sends up prices of food. Gasoline prices increase. Pharmacies start having a hard time getting drugs in as we see the beginnings of a run. A few banks run out of cash, and when that hits the news, we do see a real bank run. This causes consumer confidence to plummet and the stock market drops even further.
By December, the country is clearly divided into two camps -- those convinced Y2K will be a problem and those convinced it will amount to nothing. This is really no different than it is now, except the Y2K believers represent a much larger segment of the population than they do now. The price of survival food and other gear soars as demand outstrips supply. Guys on the street in New York are hawking cases of MREs for $150. You can't buy a bag of rice anymore, but farmers are happy to see grain prices rising again.
At companies across the country, managers are finding that no one wants to work there the weekend of Y2K. They have contracted for extra security and IS help, but most people are threatening not to come in because they want to stay with their families. This causes panic in more than a few boardrooms, although few senior executives will be in their offices -- they just expect the worker bees to come in.
12/31/99 comes and the world holds its breath. Midnight strikes and for a while, it isn't as bad as people feared. There are some intermittent blackouts, but only a dozen or so cities go dark. The next morning people wake up and CNN is reporting on Y2K problems, including looting in Atlanta and Washington D.C. In Los Angeles, the National Guard had been called out and killed six looters, injuring dozens more in a huge clash. Part of the inner city burns. Throughout the day, TV reports stories of problems and blackouts, but they also interview plenty of people who are fine. It is clearly not the end of the world as we know it.
But there are fires at a large petroleum plant on the gulf coast and a freight train collides with a passenger train, killing 15 and injuring 156. Six cars carrying sulfuric acid are derailed, sending a cloud of chemical fumes in a 3-mile plume. Is it Y2K related? No one knows, but rail traffic slows and many passengers decide to delay their trip a few days. The president calls for calm, without realizing that the worst is yet to come.
Most schools and many businesses had declared Monday the 3rd to be a holiday, so the real problems do not start arising until Tuesday. Burdened by what starts as a normal weekday usage, Sprint's long distance system -- which was struggling to survive as certain circuits went down across the country -- crashes completely. AT&T and Qwest accept part of the traffic for Sprint, but a third of the Internet is down and traffic slows. Making a long-distance call becomes an iffy thing, and sometimes they are interrupted in the middle for no reason.
While many offices are working fine, computer users find one of dozens of Y2K viruses that hatched when their computers struck 00. Some are benign, but others shut down networks at some of the country's biggest companies, stressing already burdened network administrators and computer help desks. In small companies, owners and employees are realizing that Y2K had more impact than they thought, as everything from personal information managers to e-mail fails. On some systems, word processing is about the only thing that still works.
In accounting departments across the country, wire transfers do not go as planned. About one tenth of the time, the transfer fail, and the money disappears as if into a black hole. Smart companies realize this fairly quickly and stop all funds transfers and start writing checks instead. As word spreads, bank stocks crash on Wall Street. Other financial firms also start dropping and by 1:20 they have to suspend trading. The Dow is skirting with 7500 mark,
In manufacturing plants, employees restart processes that were down for the long weekend. Sometimes they work fine, but in others, automated systems refuse to boot up. In a few, the systems turn on, but do not work correctly. Although no one is admitting it, about 20 percent of America's industrial capacity in incapacitated by Y2K.
Empty shelves at Super markets are restocked as a wave of trucks arrive. But several chains are concerned if they will have enough products to continue to restock them after the next weekend. Wal-Mart, known for the electronic data interchange with customers, is having problems getting certain items to the warehouse and then out to stores. Common things like aspirin and shampoo are in short supply.
On Thursday, Mt. Sinai hospital announces that several of the blood diagnostics machines in its labs are providing unreliable tests, and suggests to the medical community that all tests done be crosschecked on two or three different machines/and or labs (insurance companys scream in protest, of course). They cancel elective surgery. Across town at Cornell Medical Center, the digital storage and retrieval system that keeps images of all X-ray in a giant computer database has failed.
By week's end, Ford announces that it may have to close its F-150 plant because the supplier making a part for its transmission cannot produce them. In Kentucky, a vendor that makes seat cushions for Toyota is having a hard time getting raw materials. Since they are contractually obligated to start delivering seat cushions and backs within four hours of receiving an order, they may shut down Toyota production if the rail cars of chemicals cannot make it out of the Houston rail yard. But the railroad can't seem to locate the cars. It hasn't admitted it yet, but about half of its rolling stock is somehow missing from its computer databases.
Riots break out again Friday night in Tampa, Fla., as an angry mob loots a grocery store. On Saturday morning, as most people hit the grocery stores, the non-believers finally realize that Y2K has hit them. Milk and Bread are sold out by 10 a.m. and toilet paper by noon. Place like Kmart and the corner stop and go have empty shelves by 8 p.m. That night, looting spreads to 18 more cities. And it isn't just the inner cities. People are trampled in Tarrytown, N.Y. while trying to buy fresh vegetables at a Food Eporium. Soon, shoppers are pushing just about anything into their carts that can fit.
On Sunday Night, the president addresses the nation. He tells the American People what they have feared -- that Y2K was worse than we "all" imagined and that the worst is yet to come. He praises the Federal Government's response, but points the finger of blame at local governments and private industry. He warns people to expect "serious disruptions" of everything from food supplies to the production of just about every product. He reassures the population that the Fed has the money transfer problem almost worked out, but declares both Monday and Tuesday to be Bank Holidays, with no banks or markets open. For "our safety," he uses his emergency powers and declares Martial Law and a nationwide curfew of 7 p.m. for everyone under the age of 21. Everyone else, except "essential personnel" must be off the streets by 10 p.m. He then tells everyone to look for a letter in the mail the next day that explains what they can and cannot do under martial law. It includes what he calls "minimal changes," in our rights.
News sources have copies of the letter and discuss it after the president's speech. It prohibits interstate travel by car (except for destinations within 20 miles of your house if you live near the state line.) It assigns everyone a day of the week to go shopping, a day in which to get gas and a day in which to go to the bank, based on the last digit of your social security number. The penalties for violating the new rules include everything from simple fines to confiscation of personal property and deportation to "work camps" for repeat offenders.
Needless to say, the riots that night are worse than ever and things go downhill from there. Police stations are bomber, cars set fire and national guar armoroies over run. In Washoignton, D.C, soldiers open fire with light machine guns to drive back crowds of protestors.
It takes six months before stores are restocked and some restrictions are lifted. It takes two years before Clinton lifts martial law and schedules an election for that fall. But even then life does not return to the normal ever again, as some of the rights and privileges we enjoy now are lost forever.
I am thinking of building a lookout of some sort on my roof. Ideally, I would mount a sturdy platform a foot or so down the roof so that it is difficult or impossible to see from the front of the house. This would allow me to shoot over the top of the peak of the roof and to either side while remaining a difficult target to see. It is also an excellent observation point with binoculars.
The platform would be lined on all four sides with a double-thick wall of sandbags, and access would be from the attic. Well, initially, access would be from an outside ladder, or maybe a window on the top floor. But if things drag on and we need to man it permanently, an interior hatch of some sort would be the way to go.
The downside is that the roof presents an obstacle, and should a threat be close to the house, it would be impossible to see it. So if someone walks up and knocks on the door, you can't see them from above. But you will certainly see them coming.
I read TEOTWAWKI some time ago and remain impressed with the character's defensive perimeter. I like the idea of some sort of dug-in position along the perimeter and approach road. I guess the roof would be our main observation post, although that means you need to look 360 degrees. I have considered building a "tree house" for the kids that could be reinforced and used as an OP to cover the rear of our acreage. It would give a good field of view, but would probably be a target itself. I better bet would be a hole in the ground of some sort. Also, there is a wooded hill that overlooks the house and the road. This could be an interesting location for an OP. That way, if someone does approach the house, you have a clear, unobstructed view and of them. This would be one area where a laser sight would have a possible deterrent effect. Although by using it, you have given away your position as well as the element of surprise.
If it really gets bad, claymore mines would be a great way to keep the hoards from over running you. Unfortunately, they just don't sell them to civilians like me. I would consider making them, perhaps, or creating a crude tube that shoots our buckshot and bent old nails over an approach. They had these all rigged up with explosives in TEOTWAWKI, including a switchboard where they could touch off one or another of them. I don't have the tools, the knowledge or the explosives. I really don't want to mess around creating my own, or to get in trouble with the authorities. But if January 10 rolls around and we are still without power, I think I will have to see what I can do with gun powder and a bit of knowledge gained from the Internet. Even a remotely fired 12-guage 00-buck could do the job. (I don't encourage anyone to make bombs or other destructive devices). On the other hand, maybe a sign that says "Danger, Mines!" would do the trick.
Regardless of whether we start fooling around with explosives, I am planning to strategically place a large tree trunk at the driveway to prevent anyone from driving right up to the house. If it gets bad, I'll talk to the neighbors and cut a tree down on the main road. That should stop traffic and give us a chance to evaluate the people approaching.
All these plans cry out for a few items: Night vision devices. More people. A bull horn. Good commo gear.
I guess food isn't the only thing I still need to buy.
More shopping news. I have started buying canned fruit, mostly fruit cocktail and large cans of peaches in heavy syrup. The latter are a pretty good buy. I also picked up a canister of pickling lime. I have never pickled cucumbers, but it seems fairly straightforward. I already have a l25 pound bag of non-iodized salt.
Earlier this week I stopped by a large chain drug store and, believe it or not, picked up 12 pounds of past for 39 cents a pound. Now sometimes you can get spaghetti for 3 pounds for a dollar, but ziti and shells and macaroni for 39 cents? Never! And while I as there, I bought a case of oodle-noodles packets, 50 large plastic trash bags and a large jug of laundry detergent to our supplies. We use this stuff up incredibly fast around here. I already had an extra bottle of dishwashing soap and many bars of people soap as well as the liquid soap in the pump. We even have some lava soap for dirty hands.
I have also evaluated three brands of canned beef stew: Armor, Dinty Moore and a store brand. Dinty Moore tasted the best and actually had the least fat. In a survival situation, especially in the winter, fat will be good for you, but the armor stuff is just loaded with it. About twice as much as Dinty Moore per serving, which were the same size. Beef stew seems to be an ideal survival food, combining fat, carbohydrates and protein for endurance, strength, stamina, energy and warmth. Of course, I think one of those medium cans that holds three servings could feed about one hungry guy. And at around $1.99 on sale, they are expensive -- but cheaper than MREs.
I have been working on my list of things to buy as we get closed to Y2K. Delaying the purchase is a risk, because something might happen sooner. But if we stock up too early, it might go bad. Anyway, here's a first pass at it:
- 50 pounds of flour
- Some fresh yeast
- 50 or 100 pounds of potatoes
- 12 pounds of onions
- Several garlic cloves
- 12 dozen eggs
- Several country hams
- 2 gallons of olive oil (I think I will get one of these soon)
- Several bushels of apples
- 15 or 20 squash, acorn, winter, etc.
- Several heads of cabbage
Not much is happening this week on the Y2K front. The kids are finally out of school, so we are keeping busy. May make a run to see the grand parents, but there are no elaborate plans for a big vacation. Maybe do a bit of camping, possibly some visits to friends and relatives, but no two weeks off to the beach of the mountains.
Speaking of grand parents, I think it is important to convince other members of your family to prepare, but I know that this cannot be easy. I think you probably have more chances to encourage a complete stranger to prepare for Y2K than to convince a close family member who just doesn't want to hear that kind of "crazy talk." If you cannot convince them, then prepare for them, just in case.
My opinion is that some folks past retirement age just do not want to hear about Y2K because they do not want to face the possibility of that much disruption and even devastation. Others are interested, because they either saw or heard enough about the depression that they do not want to go through that again.
I know I am jumping from topic to topic, but please bear with me. It's late, and I do not want to go another week without a post or I'll start getting e-mails again. So here's my next topic: Kosovo.
NATO is going into Kosovo and finding mass graves and piles of dead bodies. Clearly, there is ample evidence that the Serbian police and soldiers killed and tortured Kosovo Albanians. I know we discussed lessons from the camps earlier, so let me know talk about lessons form the conflict.
An armed minority (the Serbs) can wreak havoc on an unarmed majority. This is the strongest argument AGAINST gun control that I can think of. It is the armed people in his country -- about a third of the residents -- who by their very presence prevent our armed forces or Federal Police from conducting such atrocities here. Do you have any doubt that they would trample our freedoms and grind our rights beneath their boot heels if they did not respect the power of an armed populace? And if the police hauled your neighbor off for "routine questioning" and he was never seen or heard from again, would you peacefully go wtih them the next week for "questioning," or would you load your gun and join with your neighbors for mutual protection?
While hundreds of thousands of refugees crossed the borders into neighboring states, many also hid out in the mountains. This means it is important to develop skills that will let you survive in the wilderness near you, whether mountain or desert. These skills could include identifying edible flora, building shelters, starting fires, trapping animals, tracking, navigating, etc. Having a well-stocked bug-out bag is also valuable.
Imagine this scenario: an unruly gang made up of an group that hates your ethnic group bangs on your door in the middle of the night. They are well armed and have flaming torches. Worse, you can't call the authorities, because they ARE the authorities. They tell you that you have 10 minutes to gather your belongings and get out or they will torch your residence. What do you take and where to you go? That's a question that requires some pondering.
Until next week... Next entry
I have taken another step towards purchasing a generator. I went out and looked at several different gasoline models, and at the wiring necessary to hook one up to the house in a semi-permanent state. I also read up a bunch ont he web about them. I know there are ways to back feed into the system, but I am not that interested in this approach. Nor do I want a series of extension cords running all through the house.
So I have looked into different schemes of how to get the power into my house. I am thinking of purchasing a large switch which can be used to turn the house power form the power company line, off completely or to the generator. This way, you are not in danger of feeding your electrical power down the grid and electrify some line man who thought the power was off. And you don't risk ruining the generator when the power does eventually come back on.
There are also separate boxes that will take a high voltage twist-lock input form a generator and run 6, 8 or 12 circuits from 15 to 30 amps each. If I was building a new structure, this would look like a pretty good way to go. I am also think that we will have to buy an enclosure or build a shed to house the generator in. (The expensive ones come with their own enclosures.) Plus, I will need to either get several 55 gallon drums or a 280 gallon fule tank. I am going to see if there are any use does on the market.
Anyway, I was really leaning towards the gasoline generators. I figured to get a nice gasoline one with a natural gas or propane option. This I could use for storms and other outages as well as Y2K. But when I looked at these generators, the difference in a gasoline one and a diesel one becomes obvious. First of all, there's consumption. A 10 kW gasoline generator will run about 4 hours on a 5-gallon tank of gas. A diesel generator with the same power will run four or five times longer on the same amount of diesel, and the diesel fuel is cheaper. Plus, diesel is less volatile and easier to store for long periods. And you can use heating oil, if you want, which you can buy for about 65 cents a gallon during the summer.
Diesel generators are also much easier to keep running for long periods of time. They require less service, don't have spark plugs, and many of the common parts, like oil filters, can be purchased from a Mercedes or Volvo dealer, if necessary.
So now my question is whether to get a Chinese diesel or a U.S. made one. I have already decided I would prefer a brushless generator, or one with brushes. I have heard that the brushless ones are better, but this will take some research to determine for sure since most people sell what they have.
I have also considered purchasing a large battery bank and a couple of inverters. The best way to use your generator effectively is to get a large one and use it to run your heavy appliances while it charges a bank of batteries. Then you run the lower consumption devices in the house off the batteries for the rest of the day. When the batteries reach a certain point, the generator kicks back in and recharges them automatically. Or, if you need to be quite for some reason, you can run the batteries down lower, even though this wears them out faster.
Now this sounds great, and is the way people who live off the grid do it. But the downside of this system is that the batteries are not cheap -- and you need lots -- and the inverters are very expensive. Maybe $1500 for 2000 watts. And you need two if you want 240 power. So this is a serious investment, which probably costs three times as much as the generator itself. Since Jill will tell you that we are not made of money, I have to keep my costs as low as possible. Per kilowatt, gasoline engines are cheaper. But as you start running them, the costs do go up at a much quicker rat that the diesel. Besides, if anything happens and we need to run the furnace all day and night, or something similar, I would rather use five or six gallons of diesel than 24 gallons of gas.
Still, the up-front pricing is a killer. I can buy a 10 KW gasoline generator for 2,000 and walk out of the store with it that day. TO buy a 8KW diesel with the bells and whistles will cost $3800 plus shipping. OUCH! I just can't make up my mind on this one if the risk/benefit ration is better for gas or diesel.
Do I talk about food a lot? It seem like it to me. I guess we will be well fed, and that's half the battle when you are talking emergencies. Anyway, I went shopping again and bought more stuff on sale, including paper plates, 3 boxes of Kleenex and some more food. I am still waiting for canned fruit to go on sale, but I did buy four large jars of apple sauce -- they were on sale for only 99 cents. We've made apple sauce, so I know how many apples it takes. It just amazes me that they can sell this stuff so cheaply.
I now there are some wild apple trees around here, but I am going to have to note the locations so that we can gather apples next fall, if necessary. It seems like I always see them when driving around, but now I can't recall exactly where. We have wild grapes in the back lot as well as plenty of black berry bushes. I have encouraged both. The grapes could be useful for making vinegar.
I also bought two more pounds of beans, two more pounds of lentils, two cans of some Chef Boy-R-Dee pasta in meat sauce, another can of corn beef hash, some different flavored pudding packs, 8 pounds of pasta and a few other odds and ends. I also purchase 100 feet of clothesline and 48 clothespins. I added some more steel scrubbies, sponges and cleaning supplies, as well. The best thing is that everything was on sale, and by buying a can or two here and there, it didn't add much to the grocery bill. I packed everything into two bags and smuggled them from the car straight into the storage room.
We have been using some of the cast iron cookware and it is great! Especially the frying pan. I know that you are supposed to season them with fat, but I used olive oil, and it is working very well. The food rarely sticks and the pans are easy to clean up. With eggs, pancakes or other non-meat items, you can usually just brush them clean. Meat and other burnt stuff will require some scrubbing, and the stainless steel scrubbies work very well. We did learn early on not to soak the cast iron cookware in the sink. If you do this, the food will stick again until you recondition the pans. It is even worse if you use soap. We don't use dishwashing soap unless it is a greasy mess.
I also bought some OTC medicines. I recently picked up some chilldren's Advil and Tylenol for the boys, as well as plenty of adult strength aspirin. We like the Bayer regular strength. You can take one or two. Or, if you want the same dose as the extra strength, take three. Plus it is cheaper this way than if you buy the extra strength. I also stocked up on decongestants and cold and flu medicines. I purchased more antiseptics for treating small scratches and scrapes and some anti-fungal lotrimin-type products. We have a pretty good amount of dental products on hand, but the next time I am at the dollar store or Big Lots, I will look for more toothbrushes. If people bug out and end up here, they may not bring their own hygiene stuff.
Captain Dave and I are going to get together over the next week or two and put up some of these products. I am going to put oatmeal, pasta and beans in sealed mylar bags, complete with oxygen absorbers. We'll see if we can shoot some photos and either he or I will post them.
Last week, we talked about planning for consumables and how you will need more than you planned on. Well, the ultimate consumable is food. But when we talk about food, it is very hard to plan exactly how many meals we have in storage. Have you ever looked at how many servings are in a can or package -- survival food or traditional food -- according to the manufacturer? And have you ever tried to each just that much? I don't know about you, but it would leave me hungry. And in a cold weather emergency, you need food to fuel your body to stay healthy and warm. Mushers in the Ididarod sled dog race eat sticks of butter and lard to help them stay warm. I'm not sure if a bowl of grits or oatmeal will be enough to sustain me on a cold February day.
An alternative way of determining your food value is to look at the minimum calories you need. On a stay-at-home, inactive day, this could be 1800 or 2000 for a big fellow, less of a smaller person. Perhaps even less, if you stay in bed under covers near a fire and read a book. But on a day when we have to fetch lots of wood from the backyard pile and distribute among the stove and fireplaces, you burn more calories. And if you have to split some kindling, there goes some more, because we all know that cutting wood will heat you twice. And if you have to stand guard outside in a bitter wind, or even just an average chilly day, you'll be burning calories at a rapid rate. And if you run a trap line like Buckshot, you'd better catch something occasionally or you will be expending more resources than you find. I mean, why do you think all those farmers and settlers had such a big breakfast and then hurried home at noon for another big meal? 'Cause they were working hard and that worked up a big appetite.
If you have purchased a year's worth of survival rations, that could be as low as 1500 calories per day. You start getting active, and your one year's food suddenly will last you six months. Even if you have a better package, with 2000 calories per day, you will consumer a year's worth of food in eight months if you need 3,000 calories per day. That's why I have added canned foods and some of canned meats, although just writing this makes me want to go out and buy some more beef stew or Spam! Remember, most survival goods do not include much fat, because it is hard to store, so pick up a few bottles of vegetable oil and some tins of shortening. And remember, you can be like the Italians dip your bread in olive oil instead of butter.
In late December, I plan to hard-boil about five dozen eggs and keep maybe 48 or 60 more fresh on hand. I also plan to have plenty of butter in the freezer and cheese in the refrigerator. If the electric goes out, we'll put a cooler outside or load it with snow and ice to keep things cold for the first few weeks until we use up most of these refrigerated consumables. We eat a lot of mayonnaise around here, another good source of fat. So I will buy a few small jars that will keep unrefrigerated until opened. And I will pick up some of those foil pouches designed to be given away with sandwiches at cafeterias. These will last until summer, so we can make tuna fish.
Since Y2K is closing in on just six months away, I have changing my purchasing habits a bit. I am no longer looking long-term storage foods. I am buying canned nuts and breakfast cereals that have shorter shelf lives. We will eat these in early 2000, no matter what. I am buying powdered juice drinks that are on sale, going for the brands that contain sugar instead of Nutrasweet or other artificial sweeteners. Even junk foods and pudding -- already prepared and instant varieties -- are finding their way into my stash, and I'm not worried about low- or no-fat foods. Soon, I will start buying canned fruit. A bit more towards the end of the year, I will stock up on crackers and other products that can go stale.
The whole issue of food also points to the importance of growing your own. In the winter, try some tomato plants in pots near a window where you might normally grow houseplants. Or maybe plant some lettuce or other greenery that can be eaten young if it fails to reach maturity. Sprouts are also a good source of protein and vitamins, and things like radish seeds can add a spark to otherwise bland meals.
I mentioned trapping earlier, and hunting is another way to catch some dinner and add some protein to your meals. Will everyone try this route? Will we be hunted out after the first month? I don't know. It depends on how bad things get, the population density in your area and the emergency response from your local officials. If people are starving they will eat the pet and then start on rodents. But my guess is that if Joe Sixpack leaves town with a new .270 on his shoulder to go hunting for the first time ever, he is much more likely to kill himself or the first cow he comes across than find a dear.
Small domesticated animals like chickens, rabbits, goats and pigeons make more sense, and can provide a good, renewable source of food. Just remember to stock plenty of feed and other supplies for them.
In response to my comments on toilet paper a few days ago, Bruce was kind enough to provide the following thoughts via e-mail. They are right on target and I thought worth sharing here:
My retired parents were visiting recently and we were discussing Y2K preparations and stockpiling items for use and barter. Toilet paper became the topic of conversation.Thank you, Bruce! I hope your message will save many people from under preparing based on our current consumption patterns, not thinking that if only half of your current trips to the bathroom are at home, you need to double your planned stash of toilet paper. The same would go for any other consumable item. In the paper goods family, we seem to go through a roll of paper towels a week, a huge amount of napkins and -- during cold and flu season -- lots of tissues. And if we have guests in the home for Y2K, these numbers will grow even further.My parents mentioned they had recently bought two 24 packs of toilet paper but they still have one pack left. I was astounded that they had used a 24 packet of toilet paper in one month. That works out to almost a roll a day! They pointed out that they do not work or go to school. That means that they use the bathroom at their home more than they do outside their home. Instead of public restrooms, schools, and the workplace "subsidizing" their toilet paper supply, they have to supply all their own. They also pointed out that as older people, they tend to go more often.
It started me thinking about what my family's usage would be if all of us were home for an extended period. I had not fully thought through how a change in our life patterns would change our consumption patterns.
Just as our trash cans fill up faster on the weekends when we are all home, other items will be depleted as a faster rate. I am now reevaluating the quantities of items that I am stockpiling with this insight in mind.
I am sure I am not the only one who has missed this obvious error in quantity calculations. Thought I might share this with Jack and Capt. Dave.
OK, so one way around this is to buy cloth goods. Use cloth towels, napkins and handkerchiefs. And while this is possible, it raises questions about germs. I know I would rather burn or otherwise dispose of an old Kleenex than have to wash a handkerchief. And studies have show that towels and sponges are breeding grounds for germs. Add to this a probably lack of water, energy to heat water and electricity to run the washer and you have a real problem facing you in how to clean all those cloth items. I think paper, disposable items are still a good bet, although buying more than you plan on using is a good way to go.
So get the big multi-packs at Sam's Club and other stores. Buy big sizes of paper towels and napkins when they are on sale. You can always use them in the future. And these are not usually high cost items. I mean, you can usually buy a roll of toilet paper for 50 cents or less. Do you want to be short because you saved $12? I am also planning on buying a few hundred more of the cheap flimsy paper plates. These can be used on top of a regular china or plastic plate to provide a clean eating surface while the regular plate underneath provides structure and can be reused without a rigorous cleaning.
I just watched a one-hour special on a local TV channel that sent their doctor over to Kosovo to report on the refugee crisis. I think it has interesting ramifications for Y2K, especially for people who live in the city or are planning to bug out. Regardless if you plan to bug out or not, you could be sent to a refugee or other internment camp, so this information could prove valuable.
Here are my observations:
First, leave early, before the crisis hits. The luckiest of refugees were those who fled early. By getting out before the crowds, they got the best places in the camps or in the private homes where people were taking in refugees. They were also hassled the least by the border guards and by the Serbs.
Second, don't get split up. Don't send the women and children first. Don't have part of your family go and part stay because you will loose contact with each other, perhaps forever. So whether you have a small family or a large one, or are planning to bug out with some friends, go together at the same time. Now, if you have a remote camp already identified and stocked, and you plan on sending some people up a week early to chop more firewood, or dig up supplies or whatever, this may make sense because you will at least know where each other are. But do not become a refugee wandering aimlessly from camp to camp with half of your family missing. As an addendum, plan on several locations to meet or places to leave messages or people you can call so you can hook up again if you are split up.
Third, store more medical supplies. Medical supplies were far scarcer than food was. Children and the elderly are sick and dying and while there is food to feed them, the antibiotics are in short supply. Hospitals are poorly equipped. Doctors are overworked and do not have proper tools.
Fourth, a sleeping bag is very handy. There's something great about being able to be warm and sleep well, and this makes a sleeping bag a necessity. Have at least one for each member of your family. If you are planning to bug out, you might want to stock a tent, too.
Fifth, children are very hardy. I would think it would be devastating to be chased out of your home and have to travel long distances by foot, and live in a row of tents. But perhaps that is only the case with our spoiled children here in the United States. There, the kids seemed very resilient. It just goes to show you that they are wiser than we are, and that the home is where your heart is, not where all your material goods are. I own a lot of junk. I am buying even more for Y2K. I need to make sure I have a few precious items we will take if we were to lose the house.
Sixth, have some portable wealth. Many of the refugees were white-collar workers, business owners and others who would at least be considered middle class. Today, they are worth whatever they can fit on their backs or in their trailer. (6.5 -- if you think there is a strong possibility of bugging out, buy a trailer!)
Seventh, have plenty of plastic bottles, canteens or similar containers in your bug out supplies. The more you can fill when its your turn at the water buffalo, the fewer times you will need to wait in line. Plus, the less likely you will be to go thirsty or risk drinking contaminated water.
Eighth, pack some soap, shampoo, toothbrush, tampons and other hygiene products. These camps are a breeding ground for germs and washing your hands can really help prevent you from catching something. Plus, these materials are also sometime sin short supply.
Ninth, don't expect to bring a gun into a camp, so have a place to hide them. Despite my recent gun control comments and firm stance on Second Amendment rights, it's a good bet they will not let firearms into the camps. So if you don't want to lose yours, have a great hiding place picked out ahead of time.
Tenth, there are many people who will share their last loaf, take in refugees, comfort someone when they too are suffering and otherwise share the burdens. There are still good Christians out there, and we should be grateful that for every act of hate and mistrust, there are many positive acts balancing the scale. If you may one day be the recipient of an act of kindness, do not forget to be kind or charitable today. If 2000 comes and goes with no crisis, give some of your food to charity or for a crisis like the one in Kosovo.
