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Survival Risk Quotient: 63
Captain Dave's Survival Risk Quotient, is updated regularly and attempts to rank how close we are to an all-out global disaster, also know as TEOTWAWKI, or "the end of the world as we know it." 100 is T EOTWAWKI, 50 is an average threat level and 0 is a peaceful world with no threats, or what it would have been like for Adam and Eve without the Serpent.

This quotient, updated on Saturday, February 12, has decreased to its lowest level in some time, reflecting the lack of recent terrorist activity, elections in Iraq and the death of Arafat and subsequent election of a Palestinian president who seems intent on peace. Although the threat of a terrorist attack appears to have receded, Captain Dave reminds his readers that terrorists always seem to strike when they are lest expected.

Threat #1: Terrorism at Home and Abroad

• The U.S. is making excellent strides in the war against terror, rounding up insurgents and foreign fighters in Iraq while at the same time using intelligence to track down terrorist cells elsewhere in the world. While the U.S. continues to escape a major attack at home, serious students of terrorism and counter terrorism experts do not believe our luck will last. One day, the other shoe will drop. So prepare for the worst, but do not let that prevent you from enjoying what is a time of relative peace and prosperity in the U.S.
  
• Many muslims dislike the U.S. because we are staunch supporters of Israel, but if Israel and Palestine reach some peaceful agreement and the constant killing on both sides stops, then the brewing hate may be reduced. Radical muslims will find something else about us to hate, but the opinions of the moderate Arab street should improve. Success in Iraq and turning control over to an Iraqi government will also help. However, conflict with Iran over their nuclear program is a simmering issue.
  
• Issues that still need to be addressed in the war against terrorism are our easily penetrated borders, better inter-departmental cooperation and sharing of data and a lack of concern in many European countries. Captain Dave believes that terrorist will continue to strike at targets in Europe because they are softer.

Threat #2: Middle East Unrest Eases

• We always expected Arafat was the problem with peace in the Middle East, and now that he has died, this is confirmed. He knew nothing but conflict, his power grew from fighting the Israelis, and so he never committed to the idea of peace. Now the Palestinian Authority has a leader who has more tools than a hammer, and Captain Dave his high hopes for peace and prosperity returning to this dangerous corner of the world. This would be good for both the Palestinians and Israelis, good the the Middle East and good for the world. Peace is not yet a done deal, but it is closer than any time in the past 15 years.
  

Threat #3: Nuclear Proliferation

• Although much attention is focused on Iraq, we see Iran's nuclear program as a serious mid-term threat. There are many unfortunate parallels between the attitudes and actions of the Iranian leaders and Saddam Hussein. They refuse to halt production of nuclear materials, they lie to their European partners (who turn a blind eye), they sponsor terrorism, and they seem to believe nothing will ever be done to them as a result. Have they not heard that those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it? An issue that will simmer on the back burner for years but will eventually have to be dealt with.
  
• North Korea has just stated that they have nuclear weapons, and the world has responded with a yawn. No surprise there. Their spoiled dictator is running around screaming like a child that can't understand why the adults are ignoring him. Unlike Europe's lackadaisical response to Iran, the concerned nations in the area -- including China and Russia -- are not taking this too lightly. They are sticking to their guns, with only South Korea acting a bit wishy washy.
  
• While Captain Dave is moderately concerned that Iran or, more likely, North Korea could use nuclear weapons against the U.S. or an ally, he is more concerned that they will provide a nuclear device to a terrorist outfit that would use them here in the U.S. As a result of the nuclear proliferation of the past 12 years, the threat of a nuclear device being used here or abroad is probably higher today than it has been since the fall of the Soviet Union. the good news is that we are not talking about global thermonuclear war, but only a few devices -- still, it will be a blast heard round the world and will destabilize the world economically and politically. Captain Dave blames the UN for much of the threat, with the balance of the blame laying at the feet of the Clinton administration, which appeased North Korea rather than adopting a tough stance.

Threat #4: Inflation Waiting in the Wings?

• The economy continues to grow at what appears to be a steady, even pace. The Fed has not raised interest rates too quickly, and while the housing market has cooled slightly, the stock market has rebounded well after a January sell off. Barring a terrorist attack or other major disruption, the economy looks pretty good -- the only potential fly in the ointment is inflation, which keeps popping up its head from time to time. Captain Dave is not worried about the trade imbalance, the amount of foreign investors holding U.S. government debt or the value of the dollar.
  
• While oil prices continue to fluctuate, before settling back down under $50, the threat of inflation goes beyond an oil crisis. The increasing global demand for commodity products -- oil, gas, steel, copper, nickel, palladium, platinum, etc -- will drive up costs of everything from cars, to electronics, to washing machines. Combine this with the weakening dollar, which makes imported goods more expensive, and you could see increased inflation in 2005. Keep an eye on China, because if their economy continues to boom the demand for commodities will drive raw material prices higher, and could set off a wave of inflation.
  
• Dave Believes our economy is sound, but the threat of inflation bears watching. Unrestrained inflation could be one of the worst crises of our lifetimes. Watch this space for tips on preparing for and dealing with inflation, which we'll post if it appears likely.
  

Threat #5: Contagious Diseases Simmer

• Despite all the hoopla in the news, the shortage of flu vaccines has not yet appeared to have had a negative affect on this flue season. However, it does show what managed care and interference with our free market system will do. A big ironic "thank you" to Bill and Hillary Clinton for lowering the price of vaccines so much that no one can afford to make them anymore.
  
• Both SARS and avian influenza, also known as the bird flu, are long term threats that are both on the radar screen here, but could re-ignite at almost any time. Avian Influenza appears to be a graver threat than SARS, and it still accounts for deaths in Vietnam, Thailand and other Asian countries. Worse, there is some recent evidence that Bird Flu is gaining the ability to transfer itself from human-to-human contact, the big jump it needs to make to reach pandemic proportions.
  
• A lack of funds, a lack of science and a lack of awareness at the peasant farmer level mean that the bird flu is still active in flocks of chickens, geese, ducks and other fowl in much of Asia. Aa a result, the virus continues to mutate and evolve, absorbing DNA from new hosts and other viruses. As it evolves, it grows potentially more deadly. The fear is that it will mutate with a human flu virus, resulting in a super bug that is as easy to catch as the flu, but as deadly as Avian Influenza. And with modern transportation systems, a new highly transmittable flu could circumnavigate the globe in a matter of weeks, potentially killing tens of millions.
  
• While scary, these early outbreaks serve as warning signs that our current world is ripe for the development of a new contagious viral illness against which we have no natural immunity and spur governments to improve their disease reporting, tracking and handling. Unfortunately, rapid air travel means a disease in a family farm in China could reach a major metropolis on our shores in 48 hours. The high density of people in major cities, the increased availability of local and global transportation, the lack of trained doctors and a paucity of isolation facilities compound this threat. Even the way in which we school our children – busing thousands to a single building and then intermingling them freely for six hours -- will allow diseases to spread more rapidly than past epidemics.
  
• Whether a new disease emerges or an old disease re-emerges in an altered form is almost a moot point. But experts believe the world is over due for a major pandemic. We're monitoring the news and will keep you apprised of emerging threats, but we hope our lucky streak continues.
  
• Keep in mind that a flu pandemic will kill far more people in a year than terrorist could ever dream of killing, and it will not be stopped by airport screening or radiation detectors. It also has a far greater chance of directly affecting you and your family than terrorism. And while a terrorist attack hits in a moment, a bird flu pandemic will last weeks or months.

Other Threats

• A look at this summer's powerful hurricane season, the eruption of Mount St. Helens and the start of wildfire season out West shows that there are always additional threats, on a regional basis for which we must prepare. Other volcanoes may erupt, potentially spewing poisonous gasses for miles. In addition to regional emergencies, we must remain aware of global threats, such as an outbreak of war between China and Taiwan, North Korea and South Korea, Pakistan and India, or almost anywhere in the Middle East. But these flash points are quite for now and any general preparations you make to protect you against one emergency will also protect you against almost any other. Having food, water, shelter and a plan will cover 90 percent of your needs.
  
• The important thing is that you start preparing today. Prepare before the emergency, not once it is here. Not only will this give you the best chance, it will be cheaper and easier. Read Captain Dave's Survival Guide and other information on this site to help improve your odds.
  
• Dave recently read a book published in 1937 titled "Gateway to Survival is Storage." While our world has changed, the basic message is as important as ever: Having stored food and other supplies is the best thing you can do to prepare for an emergency. Long term storage foods are currently one sale in our online store.
  

Fall Sale at Captain Dave's Survival Shop and Army/Navy Supply
All the great free information on Captain Dave's web site is made possible thanks to sales from our store. Just about all our 900+ items are reduced and we have coupons for thermal underwear and flight jackets that last through March 31! Check out the Survival Shop, for long-term storage food, heavy duty clothing, great winter clothes, combat boots, insulated coveralls, flight jackets and flight suits, hunting and camping gear and all sorts of other nifty stuff!

The Terrorist Threat
We know that these extremists hate America and what we stand for. They hate our freedom, our individual rights, our wealth and our opportunity. They hate our religion, and they hate our values and our culture. They hate not only our president, but our form of government. And they hate the military progress and success we have made in Afghanistan and Iraq. They fear us and our might and know that we seek to destroy them before they can destroy us.

We know that many of them have been trained in camps, trained to build and set explosives, trained in guerrilla warfare, trained in how to create car bombs and dirty bombs. We know they have a burning desire to use this training, to attack Americans and Europeans and Jews and even those who believe in a gentler form of Islam. We know they will gladly die in the process of delivering an attack that succeeds in killing Americans or people who cooperate with the United States.

And because we know this, we know that they will strike again. We expect it. In fact, Captain Dave is surprised it hasn't happened within the Continental United States since 9/11/01. But now it looks like we are closer to an attack on U.S. targets than we have been for more than two years.

But what we don't know is how and when the attack will take place. We don’t know how many cells of terrorists are lying in wait, planning one or more attacks. We don't know if they have biological weapons like Anthrax or chemical weapons like nerve gas. We don’t know if they have plans to attack a chemical facility that could release phosgene, hydrogen cyanide or another deadly chemical into the air. We don't know if they will attack a rail yard or a water purification plant, releasing a cloud of poisonous chlorine gas into a nearby neighborhood. We don't know if they have conventional weapons, or if they will target an important bridge or dam, blowing it up with a truckload of fertilizer and diesel fuel.

Dave predicts the attacks will take place before election day, as terrorist attempt to sway our election process, possibly influencing the vote as they did in Spain.

Every expert Captain Dave has spoken to believes terrorist will strike again. It is just a matter of time. Each and every American citizen needs to be prepared, both mentally, emotionally and physically, for another 9/11, or for a far worse scenario such as a nuclear attack on Washington or New York. You should be ready and able to gather your family together if they strike again. You should have food and water for several weeks or even months should our water supply be poisoned or transportation disrupted. You should have a means to defend yourself if civil unrest develops. You should have a means to survive if the economy falters and the stock market crashes.

Us the information on these pages to prepare. Before it is too late.

If you are worried about chemical or biological attack, read about how to create a safe room.

Potential Epidemics Boil in Asia
That person in front of you in the grocery store line, a friend from work, even a kid in your child's school could be the vector that introduces SARS, the bird flu or some future virus into your family.

Think back to last year's flu season. How many people did you know who got sick? How quickly did the flu or even a bad cold spread through a school or workplace. How many people do you know who took an antibiotic this winter? Now, think of what would happen if every other person you knew who got the flu had died, or if antibiotics were powerless to stop an emerging disease. Think of how caring for a sick family member could mean a death sentence. It's a frightening possibility, and even a death rate of one in eight, like SARS, would transform the world as we know it. Imagine if 30 or 40 million people in the United States died. Think of the social, cultural and economic impact that loss of life would have.

Experts agree that the U.S. and the rest of the developed world have been lucky to have gone so long without a major epidemic. But with increased intercontinental travel, crowded conditions in major cities, and Chinese farmers living in close proximity to their animals, it could just be a matter of time.

Many of these respiratory diseases will start with symptoms similar to a cold or the flu, so an epidemic could start before anyone really knows it. U.S. hospitals are under prepared and don't have enough isolation wards. Most scary are "super spreaders," people who contaminate dozens of others without even knowing it. People riding in an elevator in a Hong Kong hotel caught SARS from a doctor who stayed there. From that single point, it roared across much of Asia and into Toronto. The same could happen with a future illness.

The Centers for Disease control has recommended strict quarantine in the case of an outbreak, including travel restrictions, closing work places and schools, shutting down mass transit and setting aside entire hospitals for SARS patients. They would adopt similar precautions in the event of another highly contagious disease. Are you prepared for this?

Dave recommends that you take steps to stay healthy and build your immune system so that a casual exposure will not sicken you, but once an outbreak starts he recommends:

• If you must go out in public, wear a surgical or N95 mask and wash your hands regularly. Decontaminate (wash with antibacterial soap) as soon as you come home.
• Limit your air travel as much as possible. SARS has been spread by people on airlines.
• Stay off public transportation once the illness has reached your area.
• Avoid crowded public spaces such as movie theaters, malls and arenas. Pull your children out of school.
• Avoid hospitals and health clinics where sick people will go for diagnoses and treatment. A huge percentage of SARs patients got sick while in the hospital.

Once an epidemic has reached your region of the country, practice Self-Imposed Quarantine. Instead of expecting sick or contagious to isolate themselves, take the initiative and isolate yourself. Locking your family inside the house is much safer and more full proof than expecting someone who is contagious to know it and to willingly quarantine themselves.

Read Dave's fictional account of how the next SARS epidemic gets started. I could be the same for any similar contagious disease.

The Nuclear Threat
We've believed for years that North Korea had one or two nuclear devices. Now they have confirmed this. They also posses the missile technology to reach Japan and much of Asia and possibly even the U.S. West Coast. But even if North Korea never uses a bomb, they could sell one to another power or to terrorists who wish to strike at the U.S.

Iran is also aggressively working to build a nuclear warhead, spurning International pressure to halt production and claiming that their nuclear facilities are for power generation. This blatant excuse isn't even fooling the French!

While tension between Pakistan and India has died down, both are nuclear powers with a chip on their shoulder, daring the other to knock it off. And we've seen proof that Pakistan has already aided Libya in her efforts to create a nuclear bomb. Who else has gained design and possibly technical help from them?

Parts of the former Soviet Union nuclear arsenal are supposedly unaccounted for. Their thousands of warheads, ranging from massive missile-delivered devices to nuclear artillery shells and suitcase bombs, may be the gravest threat to nuclear stability. Rumors and reports of missing devices and materials, as well as scientists with extensive experience selling their weapons expertise on the open market after the collapse of the Soviet Empire, cannot be discounted or disproved.

A nuclear device in the hands of a competent terrorist group could be smuggled onto U.S. shores before we were even aware such a transaction had taken place. And while a single nuclear bomb will not destroy the U.S., it will no doubt change our world and our world view significantly.

Look how the U.S. reacted to 9/11, where that single terrorist attack lead us to two wars. Can you imagine how we will sweep the earth after a nuclear attack on U.S. soil? We will do more than offend the French and Germans. I expect such an attack would result in nuclear attacks on North Korea and other rogue nations as soon as we proved any complicity on their part. How would China react in such a situation? How would Russia react? Once the nuclear jeanie has been let back out of the bottle, the world will be a much more dangerous place to live and could throw us into turmoil that could last a decade and affect every living person. Scary stuff.

We wrote our section on nuclear survival before this North Korea and Iran crisis, but it remains useful regardless of the source of the bombs. It may be unimaginable to consider the use of nuclear weapons on U.S. soil, but we must remember that the fall of the Twin Towers was unimaginable until September 11, 2001.

Starting to Prepare
Every time there is a disaster, a terrorist attack, talk of war, or another threat, people turn to these pages searching for answers. If you are reading these pages because of a sudden desire to protect yourself and your loved ones, to survive and perhaps even thrive during the down times, we welcome you and can help you get started.  We suggest you read Captain Dave's Survival Guide and follow its recommendations.

You don't have to live in the woods to be a survivalist, as plenty of New Yorkers proved after 9/11. That determination to survive, to walk home, barefoot, bloody and covered in ash, shows that there is a little bit of a survivalist in thousands of New Yorkers. We're betting its there in you, too. Hopefully, we can help you tap that inner spirit.

Here's your first lesson: Do not count on others to protect you. The police usually cannot stop a murder, a sniper attack or terrorist act from occurring, only arrest those who have committed it and hope it serves a deterrent. The government cannot always stop terrorists, only kill them afterwards and try to track down their leadership. The first lesson of being a survivalist is that you must be responsible for your own well-being. You must protect yourself.

When in Doubt, Plan
Many people facing fear and uncertainty have found that knowledge is the best cure. This web site exists to help you gain some of that knowledge, to help you prepare, to give you the information you need to improve your odds at survival if you are ever caught up in the worst case scenario.

Whether you fear bombs, biological weapons, something as severe as the collapse of civilization or as mundane as a hurricane, making a plan to deal with the worst-case scenario can help reduce your level of fear. We believe the information and guidance we provide here can help you be better prepared and therefore overcome, or at least manage, your fear.

For example, people fearing anthrax can learn how to construct a "safe room" in your home.

Preparing for a Biological or Chemical Attack
The government has bought at 100 million doses of Cipro, 1.2 billion does of doxycycline and has ordered 300 million smallpox vaccines, but they tell us not to worry. Yet they clearly fear the threat of continued or expanded biological terror attacks, and for good reason.

We have all seen first hand the disruption caused by a few envelopes and a few sniper's bullets. Worse yet are concerns of terrorist in crop dusters spraying sporting events and downtown streets with anthrax spores. And Anthrax is the least of our problems because it can be treated with antibiotics and is not very contagious. No, officials are far more worried about Smallpox, a disease that the UN has considered "eradicated" for some 30 years, and they are worried about suicidal bombers setting off Sarin gas bombs similar to the ones in Tokyo subway system ten years ago that killed dozens and injured 5,000.

But how much should we worry? Is the threat realistic? Do you really need a gas mask to survive in the future? If Uncle Sam is preparing to vaccinate 20,000 first-responders, up to 500,000 medical personnel and 500,000 soldiers, should you get a smallpox vaccine too?

First, you need to realize that the chance of you personally being on the receiving end of an attack is very low, unless you live or work in an area that is a high-potential target, such as the post office, the media or the government.

Second, the greatest risk to the population in general is not an attack, but its aftermath. (In the anthrax attack, only 17 people came down with anthrax and less than half died.) The threat is not only the disease, but the unrest and disruption. Will the government declare martial law, close airports and block roadways, order everyone to remain quarantined in their homes and take other harsh precautions designed to stop the spread of disease? If so, do you have enough food and water to survive for a week or three without being able to run out to the store?

Will a bioterrorist attack be the straw that breaks the economy and sends it back into a recession? Will the food supply be disrupted? Will you have fresh, clean water to drink? Will you lose your job?

These are things you need to prepare for. And reading the Survival Guide is a good place to start. If you won't feel safe without a gas mask or chemical protection suit by your side, we're happy to sell them to you. But we suggest you stock up on food, water filters, blankets, flash lights and other more mundane items as well.

Captain Dave is preparing a detailed report on the threat of biological and chemical weapons and how to prepare to survive an attack and its aftermath. Sign our guest book to have a copy e-mailed to you as soon as it is complete.

Contacting Captain Dave
If you have any questions or comments, please E-mail us. Our address is Captain Dave Inc. P.O. Box 72298, Durham, N.C., 27717. Our phone number can be found in the Survival Shop, but chances are good you will only reach our voice mail system. E-mail is the best way to reach us and the most likely to get a response.